A quick scan of the shelves at any New Age bookstore would likely reveal a plethora of books dedicated to 2012, that infamous year when, according to many ancient mythologies, the world is going to change forever. Some say it will be the end of civilization. Others say it will be the beginning of a new enlightened era. But all who believe in the significance of this year are unanimous about one point: Something big is going to happen.
As it turns out, 2012 theories aren't limited to the superstitious or the occult. According to futurist John Petersen, founder of the Washington DC-based think tank the Arlington Institute, there are some very serious economic, political, and environmental trends that will all come to a head in the next three years. In this interview for our June-August 2009 issue, EnlightenNext's Carter Phipps speaks with Petersen about his new book, A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change, and why he feels that we may be headed toward one of the biggest transitions in human history.
While Petersen, who accurately forecasted our current financial crisis in 2006 (to a remarkable level of detail), believes that we have some tough times ahead of us, he remains optimistic about our long-term future. He is among many who believe that in order for a new world to be born, the old one needs to first confront a certain degree of crisis. How much crisis? Over the course of their conversation, Petersen gives Phipps his predictions about how bad things may get before they get better and describes what he believes the world could look like on the other side of 2012.
BIO
John L. Petersen is the president and founder of the Arlington Institute, and is considered by many to be one of the most informed futurists in the world. He is best-known for writing and thinking about high impact surprises—wild cards—and the process of surprise anticipation. His current professional involvements include the development of sophisticated tools for anticipatory analysis and surprise anticipation, long-range strategic planning and helping leadership design new approaches for dealing with the future.
In 1989 Petersen founded The Arlington Institute (TAI), a non-profit, future-oriented research institute. TAI operates on the premise that effective thinking about the future is impossible without casting a very wide net. The “think tank” serves as a global agent for change by developing new concepts, processes and tools for anticipating the future and translating that knowledge into better present-day decisions. Using advanced information technology, a core group of bright thinkers and an international network of exceptionally curious people along with simulations, modeling, scenario building, polling and analysis, Arlington helps equip leaders and organizations from many disciplines with tools and actionable perspectives for dealing with uncertain times.
An award-winning writer, Petersen's first book, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future was awarded Outstanding Academic Book of 1995 by CHOICE Academic Review, and remained on The World Future Society's best-seller list for more than a year. His latest book, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Wild Cards and Big Future Surprises, was also a WFS best-seller.
Petersen is a past board member of the World Future Society, writes on the future of aviation for Professional Pilot magazine and is a member of the board of directors of the Charles A. and Anne Morrow Lindbergh Foundation. He is a network member of the Global Business Network and a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. A provocative public speaker, he addresses a wide array of audiences around the world on a variety of future subjects.
